Senate Outlook Top 10 Races

Democrats enjoy an abundance of targets in this year's senate matchups. The DSCC has almost 3-4 times the money of its Republican counterpart, and Republicans are also defending twice as many seats as Democrats. So here the major senate races that both parties will be targeting:

1) Virginia. Popular Democratic Governor Mark Warner should crush former unpopular Republican Governor Jim Gilmore. End of story.

2) New Mexico. Democratic Congressman Tom Udall is the former Attorney General and leads Republican Congressman Steve Pierce by wide margins. Udall also raised over 2 million for this past quarter. He should coast to victory come November.

3) New Hampshire. This is a rematch from 2002. Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen is back for a rematch with current Republican Senator John Sununu. Last time Shaheen barely lost amidst a horrible year for Democrats nationally. Also, Republicans were caught outside the state Democratic party headquarters illegally jamming the phones. All that to say: 2008 will be very different. Shaheen has consistently polled double digits ahead of Sununu. That is horrible news for the incumbent this far out. A very likely win for the Democrats.

4) Colorado. Democratic Congressman Mark Udall (cousin of Tom) is running against former Congressman Bob Schaeffer. While early polls had the two dead even, Udall has pulled into a 7-9 point lead. This is due in large part to the negative press Schaeffer received about his close ties to convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Udall has should have a fundraising advantage as well. Schaeffer will seek to portray Udall as a "Boulder liberal" (Boulder is a university town and the base of Udall's congressional district) and out of touch with Colorado. The DNC's convention in Denver should give Udall a boost and the massive amounts of money that Obama will spend in the state should help as well. Udall has a slight edge in this seat.

5) Alaska. Incumbent Republican Ted Stevens has literally been around since the Alaska became a state. He is the longest serving senator on the Republican side. Normally he would coast to victory, but not this time. Stevens is under federal investigation for allegedly accepting money from oil lobbyists and using the money to remodel his house. These lobbyists received federal earmarks from the Senator. Couple that with a recruiting coup for Democrats in popular Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, and you have the makings of a close contest. Currently polling has the two deadlocked with Stevens under 50%. Dangerous signs for the longtime incumbent. This race is a toss-up.

6) Louisiana. This is the Republican's only pick-up opportunity. Incumbent Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu barely survived in 2002. Her opponent is State Treasurer and former Democrat John Kennedy. Landrieu has distinct edge in fundraising, but national money from the Republicans should make Kennedy competitive. Landrieu is polling currently under the 50% mark but consistently ahead of Kennedy. Much is still unknown about the make-up of the state because of the thousands of African Americans from New Orleans who are displaced to other states. Landrieu should get a boost with Obama at the top of the ticket because it will increase African American turnout. Right now this race gives the incumbent a slight advantage.

7) Minnesota. Republican incumbent Norm Coleman is in for a fight against comedian and Democratic nominee Al Franken. In a neutral year, Coleman would probably win the race. However, this is not a neutral year, and Franken will benefit from that. Franken has outraised Coleman in consecutive quarters and is expected to do so again this past quarter. National money will flow to this state from the DSCC so money will not make or break either candidate. Polling shows Coleman with a lead or tied. The best thing Franken has going for him is that Obama should win Minnesota comfortably. Obama leads in the state anywhere from 13-17 points. That type of advantage will give Franken a boost that could carry him to victory. However, Franken's comedic past is an opposition researcher's dream. There are tons of material that Coleman will use to attack Franken. For example, Franken wrote a satirical yet graphic article for Playboy. If this race is about Franken, he's in trouble. If it's about Coleman's record as tied to Bush, Franken could win. Slight edge to Coleman right now.

8) Oregon. Incumbent Republican Gordon Smith is in a battle against State Speaker of the House Jeff Merkley. Thus far Merkley has underwhelmed as a candidate. However, the democratic nature of Oregon and a likely strong showing by Obama should give Merkley a good shot at defeating Smith. Smith recently ran an ad tying himself to Obama. This shows that the incumbent knows he's in trouble and that the Republican brand is a dangerous thing to have hanging around one's neck. Edge to Smith right now, but he could very easily get swept away by Obama's coattails.

9) Mississippi. This is to complete the rest of Trent Lott's term that expires in 2012. Roger Wicker was chosen to replace Lott in the senate and is running against Democrat and former Governor Ronnie Musgrove. Because this is a special election, party affiliations are not on the ballot. Musgrove enjoys higher name recognition than the incumbent. Polling shows this race to be a dead heat. Musgrove would be one of the most conservative members of the Democratic caucus, but a member nonetheless. Obama should drive up African American turnout here, and if Musgrove can take a decent chunk of the white vote, he could find his way into the senate. This race is a toss-up.

10) North Carolina. Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole (wife of former senator Bob Dole) is in a tough race against State Senator Kay Hagan. Dole recently had a major statewide ad blitz that boosted her polling so that she currently leads Hagan by 9 points. However, Dole's favorability ratings are not stellar. A strong push from Hagan plus a great showing by Obama could make this race very interesting. Fundraising numbers from Hagan should tell us a lot about the race in the coming weeks. This race leans towards Dole.

Races close to the top ten are Kentucky and Maine.

Which states are in your top ten list?