4th of July Week

This past week featured candidates Obama and McCain in very different places leading up to July 4th. Obama spent his time in the states of North Dakota and Montana. A recent poll in Montana had Obama leading: Obama 48%, McCain 43%, with a ±4.5% margin of error. This is a state that Bush won handily over Kerry and Gore in 2004 and 2000. In recent years, Democrats have been successful at the state level. Democrats control the Governor's mansion as well as both US Senate seats. This year Senator Max Baucus looks to have an easy reelection as well.

Obama is following through with his promise to compete in all 50 states. July 4th is a huge holiday for politicians, and where you spend your time is a very important decision. The Mountain West is one of the major areas ripe for Democratic pick-ups and while Montana only has 3 electoral votes, Obama is seeking to expand the playing field even in this (former?) red state.

Even if Obama ends up losing the state come November, if he makes McCain spend time or money here, it's a victory. Obama will have far more money than McCain and McCain cannot afford to spend money on states that were safely in Bush's column.

Now, McCain took a different tact this past week. He spent his time touring Latin America and Mexico. Why would he do such a thing? No one really knows. Even GOP strategists were at a loss to explain why McCain would undertake such a trip. There was no message or meaning to it, so it seemed like a waste of time and resources.

Then comes the announcement that McCain is switching campaign managers to Steve Schmidt. Schmidt is a long time strategist who is highly regarded in Republican circles. He is known for a tough and quick-decision-making approach. Many operatives thought McCain was floundering message-wise, and they expect Schmidt to refocus the campaign after the second campaign kick-off this coming week.

Finally, the other main press this week was General Wesley Clark's contention that McCain's military service was not preparation to being Commander in Chief. McCain jumped all over this contention and claimed Clark was attacking McCain's service to his country. The media more or less bought into this claim, despite the fact that Clark specifically honored McCain's service, while pointing out that it did not necessarily prepare him to be President. The entire back and forth was a net positive for McCain in the short term as it allowed him to talk about his military background, while overshadowing Obama's speeches on patriotism and faith. However, there are potential long term problems. Because of Clark's assertion, some reporters have asked McCain what about McCain's service prepares him to be Commander in Chief, since he has had little combat leadership. McCain, furious with the question, had no answer. If this persists, McCain will have a problem. However, this is likely not to resurface for awhile, so its impact on the race is probably negligible.

So who had the better week leading up to the 4th?