So, many people in MN were worried this past week when a new poll showed Obama up by just a couple of points (well within the margin of error). Yet, a poll released the next day showed Obama up by his typical double digits. The composite of the polls (from Pollster.com) has Obama up in double digits and McCain has pulled all advertising dollars from the state. Obama has yet to advertise in local media markets. All of this suggests that the anxiety about that one poll was unjustified.
Polls are snapshots in time. They can also be widely different in methodologies. Basing reactions on one poll is dangerous and often times misleading. Stick to the trends of multiple polls to gauge the actual movement in the race. That one poll showing a statistical tie in MN was an outlier and not backed up by subsequent polling.
If the election were held tomorrow, we can assume that Obama would win the state comfortably.
Sunday, July 27, 2008
Obama's overseas trip
Obama's trip to various countries this past week was an unbridled success. Obama looked presidential and the various foreign leaders treated him as the next leader of the free world. Meanwhile, McCain visited a supermarket and talked to 2 people the same day Obama spoke in front of 200,000 in Berlin. Obama simply dominated the news coverage this week and McCain whined about not getting coverage.
Words cannot express how solid the week was for Obama.
Words cannot express how solid the week was for Obama.
Saturday, July 19, 2008
White House accidentally broadcasts Maliki story
In one of the funnier moments of the campaign, reporters learned of the Maliki endorsement of Obama's withdrawal plan from the White House. A staffer apparently intended to email the story to an internal distribution of advisers, to get advice on how to deal with the story. Instead this staffer hit the wrong button and sent it to the White House's extensive list of media outlets.
This is just fun.
This is just fun.
Iraq PM endorses Obama's plan for withdrawl
This is the biggest development in the presidential race to date. Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki told a German magazine that he supported Barak Obama's plan to withdraw from Iraq in 16 months.
WOW. This is huge. McCain has been attacking Obama for not visiting Iraq and making his policies up based on political expediency instead of the facts on the ground. This argument just died. McCain can hardly accuse Maliki of not being close enough to Iraq. Also, when McCain was asked in 2004: "Should the US withdraw if the Iraqi government asked us to, even if the US wasn't happy about it?" McCain answered yes.
Either McCain has to endorse Maliki and Obama's position, or admit he cares nothing for Iraqi sovereignty.
A prominent Republican strategist who occasionally advises the McCain campaign said simply, "We're fucked." This has the potential to completely refocus how Iraq is perceived. Obama now has the upper hand on this issue without question. Given that McCain is running purely on his foreign policy credentials, this represents a major blow. There are two major foreign policy questions in this election: how to deal with terrorism, and how to deal with Iraq. With Maliki's statement, McCain may have just lost hold on the Iraq question.
Obama is going to come out this week hammering this point.
WOW. This is huge. McCain has been attacking Obama for not visiting Iraq and making his policies up based on political expediency instead of the facts on the ground. This argument just died. McCain can hardly accuse Maliki of not being close enough to Iraq. Also, when McCain was asked in 2004: "Should the US withdraw if the Iraqi government asked us to, even if the US wasn't happy about it?" McCain answered yes.
Either McCain has to endorse Maliki and Obama's position, or admit he cares nothing for Iraqi sovereignty.
A prominent Republican strategist who occasionally advises the McCain campaign said simply, "We're fucked." This has the potential to completely refocus how Iraq is perceived. Obama now has the upper hand on this issue without question. Given that McCain is running purely on his foreign policy credentials, this represents a major blow. There are two major foreign policy questions in this election: how to deal with terrorism, and how to deal with Iraq. With Maliki's statement, McCain may have just lost hold on the Iraq question.
Obama is going to come out this week hammering this point.
MN House races
Thanks to recent fundraising numbers, we can now analyze how competitive the Minnesota House races are. There are three competitive house races, MN 3, MN 2, and MN 6. All others are safe seats.
In the MN 3, Congressman Ramstad (MN-R) is retiring. Ramstad is a popular moderate Republican who voted for bills like S-CHIP. This district is about as split as they come, though leaning 1 point more Republican. The candidates to replace Ramstad are Democrat Ashwin Madia, an Iraq War Veteran, and Eric Paulsen, a Republican member of the State House of Representatives. Pauslen is considerably more conservative than Ramstad as he announced that he would have voted against the proposed expansion of S-CHIP.
Recent fundraising numbers for this race are as follows:
In the MN 2, Democrat Steve Sarvi is challenging incumbent Republican John Kline. Their numbers are as follows:
Finally, the MN 6 features freshman Republican incumbent Michelle Bachmann vs Democrat Elwyn Tinklenberg. Their numbers are:
In the MN 3, Congressman Ramstad (MN-R) is retiring. Ramstad is a popular moderate Republican who voted for bills like S-CHIP. This district is about as split as they come, though leaning 1 point more Republican. The candidates to replace Ramstad are Democrat Ashwin Madia, an Iraq War Veteran, and Eric Paulsen, a Republican member of the State House of Representatives. Pauslen is considerably more conservative than Ramstad as he announced that he would have voted against the proposed expansion of S-CHIP.
Recent fundraising numbers for this race are as follows:
Madia
693,000 Raised
738,000 Cash on Hand
Paulsen
621,000 Raised
1,123,000 Cash on Hand
In the MN 2, Democrat Steve Sarvi is challenging incumbent Republican John Kline. Their numbers are as follows:
Kline
241,000 Raised
647,000 Cash on Hand
Sarvi
147,000 Raised
98,000 Cash on Hand
Finally, the MN 6 features freshman Republican incumbent Michelle Bachmann vs Democrat Elwyn Tinklenberg. Their numbers are:
Bachmann
378,000 Raised
1,297,000 Cash on Hand
Tinklenberg
271,000 Raised
225,000 Cash on Hand
Like Sarvi in the MN 2, Tinklenberg will need national help to make this a race. This district is the most Republican of the three I've looked at, leaning 5 points Republican. Obama should help here, but Bachmann is the safest bet of the three seats to remain in office thus far.
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Swing State polls
We have a new round of swing state polls. Obama only trails McCain in South Dakota by 4 points, (47-43). This is on the hells of polls showing a tie in North Dakota and an Obama lead in Montana. If this trend continues, McCain is going to have to defend territory that Bush was able to take for granted.
Now for the more traditional swing states:
Iowa:
Obama- 48
McCain- 38
Michigan:
Obama- 47
McCain- 39
Minnesota:
Obama- 52
McCain- 34
Obama has consistently polled ahead by solid margins in all three states. The last two elections had Minnesota in the Democratic column by small margins. Almost every poll has shown Obama to be leading by wide margins.
Iowa is the state that launched Obama, and a state McCain skipped in 2000 and 2008. This is the state most likely to switch parties in 2008, and it's easy to see why.
Michigan was a state that McCain wanted to put into his column this time. However, Obama seems to have opened up a solid lead here. We'll see if subsequent polling confirms this result.
What is your take on these polls?
Now for the more traditional swing states:
Iowa:
Obama- 48
McCain- 38
Michigan:
Obama- 47
McCain- 39
Minnesota:
Obama- 52
McCain- 34
Obama has consistently polled ahead by solid margins in all three states. The last two elections had Minnesota in the Democratic column by small margins. Almost every poll has shown Obama to be leading by wide margins.
Iowa is the state that launched Obama, and a state McCain skipped in 2000 and 2008. This is the state most likely to switch parties in 2008, and it's easy to see why.
Michigan was a state that McCain wanted to put into his column this time. However, Obama seems to have opened up a solid lead here. We'll see if subsequent polling confirms this result.
What is your take on these polls?
MN Senate
Last night it was reported that former Independent Governor Jesse Ventura would NOT run for the senate. This is undoubtable good news for Al Franken as Ventura would have split the independent vote and turned the race into a circus.
There are two new polls in Minnesota that seem to be polling different states entirely. One poll showed the following:
Franken- 44
Coleman- 42
However, another poll showed a much different race:
Coleman- 52
Franken- 39
Why the disparity in polls? This is a pattern in polling for this race. One possible explanation is that the latter poll has consistently showed Obama with a narrow lead in MN, while the first polling company has shown Obama with a wide lead that has been confirmed by other polls. Since the poll uses the same methodology for presidential and senate polls, the latter polling company's methodology is probably more favorable to Republicans.
Who do you think is actually ahead in this race?
There are two new polls in Minnesota that seem to be polling different states entirely. One poll showed the following:
Franken- 44
Coleman- 42
However, another poll showed a much different race:
Coleman- 52
Franken- 39
Why the disparity in polls? This is a pattern in polling for this race. One possible explanation is that the latter poll has consistently showed Obama with a narrow lead in MN, while the first polling company has shown Obama with a wide lead that has been confirmed by other polls. Since the poll uses the same methodology for presidential and senate polls, the latter polling company's methodology is probably more favorable to Republicans.
Who do you think is actually ahead in this race?
Saturday, July 12, 2008
MN-Senate Fundraising
Incumbent Republican Senator Norm Coleman raised $2.35 million for the quarter and has $7 million cash on hand. These are solid numbers.
Democratic challenger Al Franken raised nearly as much with $2.26 million and sits on $4 million. Not quite as good as Coleman, but money should not be much of an issue in this race. The DSCC (Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee) will make sure Franken is not overwhelmed by Coleman's current money advantage.
If the race primarily focuses on Franken, he's in trouble unless Obama has a huge showing in MN. If the race is about Coleman or typical Democratic-Republican points, Coleman is in serious trouble as Obama is projected to do very well here.
Democratic challenger Al Franken raised nearly as much with $2.26 million and sits on $4 million. Not quite as good as Coleman, but money should not be much of an issue in this race. The DSCC (Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee) will make sure Franken is not overwhelmed by Coleman's current money advantage.
If the race primarily focuses on Franken, he's in trouble unless Obama has a huge showing in MN. If the race is about Coleman or typical Democratic-Republican points, Coleman is in serious trouble as Obama is projected to do very well here.
Friday, July 11, 2008
McCain's Fundraising
John McCain raised $22 million for the month of June, his campaign reported today. He has $27 million on hand to spend before he is officially named the nominee on Sept. 4. The RNC raised $26 million and has around $68 million on hand. The Republicans intend to spend around $200 million total to elect McCain.
We are still waiting for Obama and the DNC to release their numbers. The Wall Street Journal reported that Obama's take was around $30 million, but the Obama campaign dismissed the rumors. During the campaign it has proven very difficult to accurately predict Obama's fundraising based on early "leaks."
We are still waiting for Obama and the DNC to release their numbers. The Wall Street Journal reported that Obama's take was around $30 million, but the Obama campaign dismissed the rumors. During the campaign it has proven very difficult to accurately predict Obama's fundraising based on early "leaks."
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Top McCain Economic Advisor Way Off Message
Former Senator Phil Gramm, a top McCain economic adviser, said today that America was in a "mental recession" and that we had "become a nation of whiners." According to Gramm, this is due to the liberal media feeding us bad information.
Wow. Talk about off-message. McCain quickly rejected this statement as not representing his beliefs, while Obama labeled it out of touch.
This is a potential problem for McCain. There is a narrative that McCain is weak on the economy (and potentially out of touch). McCain himself noted, "The issue
of economics is not something I've understood as well as I should. I've got Greenspan's book." If Obama can successfully label McCain weak and out of touch on the economy, he stands a very good chance of winning the election. Currently, the economy is far and away the most important issue on voters' minds. Expect to see Gramm's remarks come up again and again in the coming days and months in Obama's speeches and paid advertising.
How damaging do you think this is for McCain?
Wow. Talk about off-message. McCain quickly rejected this statement as not representing his beliefs, while Obama labeled it out of touch.
This is a potential problem for McCain. There is a narrative that McCain is weak on the economy (and potentially out of touch). McCain himself noted, "The issue
of economics is not something I've understood as well as I should. I've got Greenspan's book." If Obama can successfully label McCain weak and out of touch on the economy, he stands a very good chance of winning the election. Currently, the economy is far and away the most important issue on voters' minds. Expect to see Gramm's remarks come up again and again in the coming days and months in Obama's speeches and paid advertising.
How damaging do you think this is for McCain?
Obama expanding the map
Recently it was reported that Obama would be sending 150 paid staffers to Missouri, a state where John McCain currently holds a narrow polling advantage, and one that generally leans to the Republican.
Consider that number again. 150 is a staggering number of staffers to put in a state like Missouri. This shows Obama's commitment to forcing McCain on the defensive in states that Bush won in 2004.
Obama can win 270 electoral votes in many different ways, and Missouri is not crucial to his chances. However, if Obama can force McCain to scramble to scrape out a win in a state that is very crucial to his chances of winning, it is a strategic victory. McCain does not have the resources to match Obama in staff but every dollar he spends here is one more dollar not spent in Ohio. Furthermore, Obama's huge effort here should help Democrats in tough house races and retaking the Governor's mansion.
Do you think it's a good move to put this many staffers in Missouri?
Consider that number again. 150 is a staggering number of staffers to put in a state like Missouri. This shows Obama's commitment to forcing McCain on the defensive in states that Bush won in 2004.
Obama can win 270 electoral votes in many different ways, and Missouri is not crucial to his chances. However, if Obama can force McCain to scramble to scrape out a win in a state that is very crucial to his chances of winning, it is a strategic victory. McCain does not have the resources to match Obama in staff but every dollar he spends here is one more dollar not spent in Ohio. Furthermore, Obama's huge effort here should help Democrats in tough house races and retaking the Governor's mansion.
Do you think it's a good move to put this many staffers in Missouri?
Tuesday, July 8, 2008
Senate Outlook Top 10 Races
Democrats enjoy an abundance of targets in this year's senate matchups. The DSCC has almost 3-4 times the money of its Republican counterpart, and Republicans are also defending twice as many seats as Democrats. So here the major senate races that both parties will be targeting:
1) Virginia. Popular Democratic Governor Mark Warner should crush former unpopular Republican Governor Jim Gilmore. End of story.
2) New Mexico. Democratic Congressman Tom Udall is the former Attorney General and leads Republican Congressman Steve Pierce by wide margins. Udall also raised over 2 million for this past quarter. He should coast to victory come November.
3) New Hampshire. This is a rematch from 2002. Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen is back for a rematch with current Republican Senator John Sununu. Last time Shaheen barely lost amidst a horrible year for Democrats nationally. Also, Republicans were caught outside the state Democratic party headquarters illegally jamming the phones. All that to say: 2008 will be very different. Shaheen has consistently polled double digits ahead of Sununu. That is horrible news for the incumbent this far out. A very likely win for the Democrats.
4) Colorado. Democratic Congressman Mark Udall (cousin of Tom) is running against former Congressman Bob Schaeffer. While early polls had the two dead even, Udall has pulled into a 7-9 point lead. This is due in large part to the negative press Schaeffer received about his close ties to convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Udall has should have a fundraising advantage as well. Schaeffer will seek to portray Udall as a "Boulder liberal" (Boulder is a university town and the base of Udall's congressional district) and out of touch with Colorado. The DNC's convention in Denver should give Udall a boost and the massive amounts of money that Obama will spend in the state should help as well. Udall has a slight edge in this seat.
5) Alaska. Incumbent Republican Ted Stevens has literally been around since the Alaska became a state. He is the longest serving senator on the Republican side. Normally he would coast to victory, but not this time. Stevens is under federal investigation for allegedly accepting money from oil lobbyists and using the money to remodel his house. These lobbyists received federal earmarks from the Senator. Couple that with a recruiting coup for Democrats in popular Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, and you have the makings of a close contest. Currently polling has the two deadlocked with Stevens under 50%. Dangerous signs for the longtime incumbent. This race is a toss-up.
6) Louisiana. This is the Republican's only pick-up opportunity. Incumbent Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu barely survived in 2002. Her opponent is State Treasurer and former Democrat John Kennedy. Landrieu has distinct edge in fundraising, but national money from the Republicans should make Kennedy competitive. Landrieu is polling currently under the 50% mark but consistently ahead of Kennedy. Much is still unknown about the make-up of the state because of the thousands of African Americans from New Orleans who are displaced to other states. Landrieu should get a boost with Obama at the top of the ticket because it will increase African American turnout. Right now this race gives the incumbent a slight advantage.
7) Minnesota. Republican incumbent Norm Coleman is in for a fight against comedian and Democratic nominee Al Franken. In a neutral year, Coleman would probably win the race. However, this is not a neutral year, and Franken will benefit from that. Franken has outraised Coleman in consecutive quarters and is expected to do so again this past quarter. National money will flow to this state from the DSCC so money will not make or break either candidate. Polling shows Coleman with a lead or tied. The best thing Franken has going for him is that Obama should win Minnesota comfortably. Obama leads in the state anywhere from 13-17 points. That type of advantage will give Franken a boost that could carry him to victory. However, Franken's comedic past is an opposition researcher's dream. There are tons of material that Coleman will use to attack Franken. For example, Franken wrote a satirical yet graphic article for Playboy. If this race is about Franken, he's in trouble. If it's about Coleman's record as tied to Bush, Franken could win. Slight edge to Coleman right now.
8) Oregon. Incumbent Republican Gordon Smith is in a battle against State Speaker of the House Jeff Merkley. Thus far Merkley has underwhelmed as a candidate. However, the democratic nature of Oregon and a likely strong showing by Obama should give Merkley a good shot at defeating Smith. Smith recently ran an ad tying himself to Obama. This shows that the incumbent knows he's in trouble and that the Republican brand is a dangerous thing to have hanging around one's neck. Edge to Smith right now, but he could very easily get swept away by Obama's coattails.
9) Mississippi. This is to complete the rest of Trent Lott's term that expires in 2012. Roger Wicker was chosen to replace Lott in the senate and is running against Democrat and former Governor Ronnie Musgrove. Because this is a special election, party affiliations are not on the ballot. Musgrove enjoys higher name recognition than the incumbent. Polling shows this race to be a dead heat. Musgrove would be one of the most conservative members of the Democratic caucus, but a member nonetheless. Obama should drive up African American turnout here, and if Musgrove can take a decent chunk of the white vote, he could find his way into the senate. This race is a toss-up.
10) North Carolina. Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole (wife of former senator Bob Dole) is in a tough race against State Senator Kay Hagan. Dole recently had a major statewide ad blitz that boosted her polling so that she currently leads Hagan by 9 points. However, Dole's favorability ratings are not stellar. A strong push from Hagan plus a great showing by Obama could make this race very interesting. Fundraising numbers from Hagan should tell us a lot about the race in the coming weeks. This race leans towards Dole.
Races close to the top ten are Kentucky and Maine.
Which states are in your top ten list?
1) Virginia. Popular Democratic Governor Mark Warner should crush former unpopular Republican Governor Jim Gilmore. End of story.
2) New Mexico. Democratic Congressman Tom Udall is the former Attorney General and leads Republican Congressman Steve Pierce by wide margins. Udall also raised over 2 million for this past quarter. He should coast to victory come November.
3) New Hampshire. This is a rematch from 2002. Former Governor Jeanne Shaheen is back for a rematch with current Republican Senator John Sununu. Last time Shaheen barely lost amidst a horrible year for Democrats nationally. Also, Republicans were caught outside the state Democratic party headquarters illegally jamming the phones. All that to say: 2008 will be very different. Shaheen has consistently polled double digits ahead of Sununu. That is horrible news for the incumbent this far out. A very likely win for the Democrats.
4) Colorado. Democratic Congressman Mark Udall (cousin of Tom) is running against former Congressman Bob Schaeffer. While early polls had the two dead even, Udall has pulled into a 7-9 point lead. This is due in large part to the negative press Schaeffer received about his close ties to convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Udall has should have a fundraising advantage as well. Schaeffer will seek to portray Udall as a "Boulder liberal" (Boulder is a university town and the base of Udall's congressional district) and out of touch with Colorado. The DNC's convention in Denver should give Udall a boost and the massive amounts of money that Obama will spend in the state should help as well. Udall has a slight edge in this seat.
5) Alaska. Incumbent Republican Ted Stevens has literally been around since the Alaska became a state. He is the longest serving senator on the Republican side. Normally he would coast to victory, but not this time. Stevens is under federal investigation for allegedly accepting money from oil lobbyists and using the money to remodel his house. These lobbyists received federal earmarks from the Senator. Couple that with a recruiting coup for Democrats in popular Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, and you have the makings of a close contest. Currently polling has the two deadlocked with Stevens under 50%. Dangerous signs for the longtime incumbent. This race is a toss-up.
6) Louisiana. This is the Republican's only pick-up opportunity. Incumbent Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu barely survived in 2002. Her opponent is State Treasurer and former Democrat John Kennedy. Landrieu has distinct edge in fundraising, but national money from the Republicans should make Kennedy competitive. Landrieu is polling currently under the 50% mark but consistently ahead of Kennedy. Much is still unknown about the make-up of the state because of the thousands of African Americans from New Orleans who are displaced to other states. Landrieu should get a boost with Obama at the top of the ticket because it will increase African American turnout. Right now this race gives the incumbent a slight advantage.
7) Minnesota. Republican incumbent Norm Coleman is in for a fight against comedian and Democratic nominee Al Franken. In a neutral year, Coleman would probably win the race. However, this is not a neutral year, and Franken will benefit from that. Franken has outraised Coleman in consecutive quarters and is expected to do so again this past quarter. National money will flow to this state from the DSCC so money will not make or break either candidate. Polling shows Coleman with a lead or tied. The best thing Franken has going for him is that Obama should win Minnesota comfortably. Obama leads in the state anywhere from 13-17 points. That type of advantage will give Franken a boost that could carry him to victory. However, Franken's comedic past is an opposition researcher's dream. There are tons of material that Coleman will use to attack Franken. For example, Franken wrote a satirical yet graphic article for Playboy. If this race is about Franken, he's in trouble. If it's about Coleman's record as tied to Bush, Franken could win. Slight edge to Coleman right now.
8) Oregon. Incumbent Republican Gordon Smith is in a battle against State Speaker of the House Jeff Merkley. Thus far Merkley has underwhelmed as a candidate. However, the democratic nature of Oregon and a likely strong showing by Obama should give Merkley a good shot at defeating Smith. Smith recently ran an ad tying himself to Obama. This shows that the incumbent knows he's in trouble and that the Republican brand is a dangerous thing to have hanging around one's neck. Edge to Smith right now, but he could very easily get swept away by Obama's coattails.
9) Mississippi. This is to complete the rest of Trent Lott's term that expires in 2012. Roger Wicker was chosen to replace Lott in the senate and is running against Democrat and former Governor Ronnie Musgrove. Because this is a special election, party affiliations are not on the ballot. Musgrove enjoys higher name recognition than the incumbent. Polling shows this race to be a dead heat. Musgrove would be one of the most conservative members of the Democratic caucus, but a member nonetheless. Obama should drive up African American turnout here, and if Musgrove can take a decent chunk of the white vote, he could find his way into the senate. This race is a toss-up.
10) North Carolina. Republican incumbent Elizabeth Dole (wife of former senator Bob Dole) is in a tough race against State Senator Kay Hagan. Dole recently had a major statewide ad blitz that boosted her polling so that she currently leads Hagan by 9 points. However, Dole's favorability ratings are not stellar. A strong push from Hagan plus a great showing by Obama could make this race very interesting. Fundraising numbers from Hagan should tell us a lot about the race in the coming weeks. This race leans towards Dole.
Races close to the top ten are Kentucky and Maine.
Which states are in your top ten list?
Monday, July 7, 2008
Obama to accept nomination at Mile High stadium
Today it was announced that Obama will accept the nomination from Invesco Field (formerly known as Mile High Stadium) in Denver. Its seating capacity is 75,000, in addition to the many thousands who fit on the field. This is far more than the 20-30k that would fit in the Pepsi Center, where the rest of the DNC Convention will be held.
This is a great move for Obama. It will showcase an incredibly energized crowd on the anniversary of MLK's "I have a dream" speech. This will show a sharp contrast to a less visually appealing McCain who has struggled with prepared speeches.
This is a great move for Obama. It will showcase an incredibly energized crowd on the anniversary of MLK's "I have a dream" speech. This will show a sharp contrast to a less visually appealing McCain who has struggled with prepared speeches.
Sunday, July 6, 2008
Candidates and Campaign Finance
Obama recently announced he would not accept public funds for the general election. He cast aside an $85 million check in favor of raising all of the funds he needs. This is obviously his best choice. He has raised roughly $270 million from over 1.5 million people. Most of those people can give again, plus he has all of Hillary's donor base to tap. Most estimates have Obama outspending McCain in the general by as much as 4-1. An NBC anchor summed it up best by saying of the decision "Duh."
McCain has pounded Obama for breaking his promise to take public financing in the general if he did as well. He is trying to portray Obama as just another politician who breaks his word when it's convenient. There are two major problems with this strategy's effectiveness. First, no one outside of Washington cares about public financing. This has never been an issue that moves votes. Every year there are countless races where one opponent tries to make hay out of another opponent's money, and it never works. This issue has no legs. In the weeks following Obama's decision, it has had no press whatsoever. It's a dead issue, and Obama is the better for it.
Secondly, McCain will fail to win voters on this issue because he himself broke a campaign fincance law bearing his own name. (McCain-Feingold for those of you scoring at home). In the primary, when McCain was in dire straits, he announced he would accept public matching funds. This meant he would be limited to around $55 million until he was officially the nominee on Sept. 4 at the end of the RNC Convention. However, the FEC (Federal Election Commission) was unable to act because it did not have a quorum, and no monies were distributed to candidates. All the candidates who opted in to public matching funds took out loans on the promise that when the FEC finally acted, the loans would be repaid. McCain himself admits he took out a loan using the leverage of public matching funds. This by law locks him into the spending cap. Of course, when McCain became the defacto nominee, he pulled out of the public matching fund system so he could raise and spend as much as he needed to before his convention. Had he stuck to the spending cap, he would have been broke from sometime in March all the way till the convention. Obama would have crushed him on the airwaves and effectively won the race.
McCain is a hypocrite and liar for breaking his promise not to abide by the spending caps after using the promise of funds to get a loan. Obama may have artfully danced around his supposed promise to take general public financing, but McCain broke a law that he himself wrote. McCain's sin in this case is far worse than anything Obama may have done.
What do you think about the decisions made by Obama and McCain?
McCain has pounded Obama for breaking his promise to take public financing in the general if he did as well. He is trying to portray Obama as just another politician who breaks his word when it's convenient. There are two major problems with this strategy's effectiveness. First, no one outside of Washington cares about public financing. This has never been an issue that moves votes. Every year there are countless races where one opponent tries to make hay out of another opponent's money, and it never works. This issue has no legs. In the weeks following Obama's decision, it has had no press whatsoever. It's a dead issue, and Obama is the better for it.
Secondly, McCain will fail to win voters on this issue because he himself broke a campaign fincance law bearing his own name. (McCain-Feingold for those of you scoring at home). In the primary, when McCain was in dire straits, he announced he would accept public matching funds. This meant he would be limited to around $55 million until he was officially the nominee on Sept. 4 at the end of the RNC Convention. However, the FEC (Federal Election Commission) was unable to act because it did not have a quorum, and no monies were distributed to candidates. All the candidates who opted in to public matching funds took out loans on the promise that when the FEC finally acted, the loans would be repaid. McCain himself admits he took out a loan using the leverage of public matching funds. This by law locks him into the spending cap. Of course, when McCain became the defacto nominee, he pulled out of the public matching fund system so he could raise and spend as much as he needed to before his convention. Had he stuck to the spending cap, he would have been broke from sometime in March all the way till the convention. Obama would have crushed him on the airwaves and effectively won the race.
McCain is a hypocrite and liar for breaking his promise not to abide by the spending caps after using the promise of funds to get a loan. Obama may have artfully danced around his supposed promise to take general public financing, but McCain broke a law that he himself wrote. McCain's sin in this case is far worse than anything Obama may have done.
What do you think about the decisions made by Obama and McCain?
Saturday, July 5, 2008
4th of July Week
This past week featured candidates Obama and McCain in very different places leading up to July 4th. Obama spent his time in the states of North Dakota and Montana. A recent poll in Montana had Obama leading: Obama 48%, McCain 43%, with a ±4.5% margin of error. This is a state that Bush won handily over Kerry and Gore in 2004 and 2000. In recent years, Democrats have been successful at the state level. Democrats control the Governor's mansion as well as both US Senate seats. This year Senator Max Baucus looks to have an easy reelection as well.
Obama is following through with his promise to compete in all 50 states. July 4th is a huge holiday for politicians, and where you spend your time is a very important decision. The Mountain West is one of the major areas ripe for Democratic pick-ups and while Montana only has 3 electoral votes, Obama is seeking to expand the playing field even in this (former?) red state.
Even if Obama ends up losing the state come November, if he makes McCain spend time or money here, it's a victory. Obama will have far more money than McCain and McCain cannot afford to spend money on states that were safely in Bush's column.
Now, McCain took a different tact this past week. He spent his time touring Latin America and Mexico. Why would he do such a thing? No one really knows. Even GOP strategists were at a loss to explain why McCain would undertake such a trip. There was no message or meaning to it, so it seemed like a waste of time and resources.
Then comes the announcement that McCain is switching campaign managers to Steve Schmidt. Schmidt is a long time strategist who is highly regarded in Republican circles. He is known for a tough and quick-decision-making approach. Many operatives thought McCain was floundering message-wise, and they expect Schmidt to refocus the campaign after the second campaign kick-off this coming week.
Finally, the other main press this week was General Wesley Clark's contention that McCain's military service was not preparation to being Commander in Chief. McCain jumped all over this contention and claimed Clark was attacking McCain's service to his country. The media more or less bought into this claim, despite the fact that Clark specifically honored McCain's service, while pointing out that it did not necessarily prepare him to be President. The entire back and forth was a net positive for McCain in the short term as it allowed him to talk about his military background, while overshadowing Obama's speeches on patriotism and faith. However, there are potential long term problems. Because of Clark's assertion, some reporters have asked McCain what about McCain's service prepares him to be Commander in Chief, since he has had little combat leadership. McCain, furious with the question, had no answer. If this persists, McCain will have a problem. However, this is likely not to resurface for awhile, so its impact on the race is probably negligible.
So who had the better week leading up to the 4th?
Obama is following through with his promise to compete in all 50 states. July 4th is a huge holiday for politicians, and where you spend your time is a very important decision. The Mountain West is one of the major areas ripe for Democratic pick-ups and while Montana only has 3 electoral votes, Obama is seeking to expand the playing field even in this (former?) red state.
Even if Obama ends up losing the state come November, if he makes McCain spend time or money here, it's a victory. Obama will have far more money than McCain and McCain cannot afford to spend money on states that were safely in Bush's column.
Now, McCain took a different tact this past week. He spent his time touring Latin America and Mexico. Why would he do such a thing? No one really knows. Even GOP strategists were at a loss to explain why McCain would undertake such a trip. There was no message or meaning to it, so it seemed like a waste of time and resources.
Then comes the announcement that McCain is switching campaign managers to Steve Schmidt. Schmidt is a long time strategist who is highly regarded in Republican circles. He is known for a tough and quick-decision-making approach. Many operatives thought McCain was floundering message-wise, and they expect Schmidt to refocus the campaign after the second campaign kick-off this coming week.
Finally, the other main press this week was General Wesley Clark's contention that McCain's military service was not preparation to being Commander in Chief. McCain jumped all over this contention and claimed Clark was attacking McCain's service to his country. The media more or less bought into this claim, despite the fact that Clark specifically honored McCain's service, while pointing out that it did not necessarily prepare him to be President. The entire back and forth was a net positive for McCain in the short term as it allowed him to talk about his military background, while overshadowing Obama's speeches on patriotism and faith. However, there are potential long term problems. Because of Clark's assertion, some reporters have asked McCain what about McCain's service prepares him to be Commander in Chief, since he has had little combat leadership. McCain, furious with the question, had no answer. If this persists, McCain will have a problem. However, this is likely not to resurface for awhile, so its impact on the race is probably negligible.
So who had the better week leading up to the 4th?
Friday, July 4, 2008
Welcome to Strategic Politics 2008
This blog will analyze political strategy and keep you up to date on all the major races that are interesting to me.
I will analyze fundraising, ads, ad buys, messaging, polls, media coverage, and the major stories affecting the 2008 political landscape.
I am a veteran of many political campaigns. I managed (and won) a campaign for Andy Herod, a candidate for County Commission in Athens, GA.
Recently I moved from Athens, GA to the Twin Cities area in Minnesota. I got married in May to a (former) single mother, with a 4 year old son.
I have always been passionate about politics. I recall my mother taking me to see Bill Clinton when he dropped by Columbus, GA (where I grew up) for a campaign stop in 1992. I was not quite eight years old at the time. On election night 1992 I remember the blue states were good, and the red states were bad. I have been hooked ever since. I am a lifelong Democrat, but this blog will be about analyzing strategy from both parties.
What was your first political memory?
I will analyze fundraising, ads, ad buys, messaging, polls, media coverage, and the major stories affecting the 2008 political landscape.
I am a veteran of many political campaigns. I managed (and won) a campaign for Andy Herod, a candidate for County Commission in Athens, GA.
Recently I moved from Athens, GA to the Twin Cities area in Minnesota. I got married in May to a (former) single mother, with a 4 year old son.
I have always been passionate about politics. I recall my mother taking me to see Bill Clinton when he dropped by Columbus, GA (where I grew up) for a campaign stop in 1992. I was not quite eight years old at the time. On election night 1992 I remember the blue states were good, and the red states were bad. I have been hooked ever since. I am a lifelong Democrat, but this blog will be about analyzing strategy from both parties.
What was your first political memory?
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