So, many people in MN were worried this past week when a new poll showed Obama up by just a couple of points (well within the margin of error). Yet, a poll released the next day showed Obama up by his typical double digits. The composite of the polls (from Pollster.com) has Obama up in double digits and McCain has pulled all advertising dollars from the state. Obama has yet to advertise in local media markets. All of this suggests that the anxiety about that one poll was unjustified.
Polls are snapshots in time. They can also be widely different in methodologies. Basing reactions on one poll is dangerous and often times misleading. Stick to the trends of multiple polls to gauge the actual movement in the race. That one poll showing a statistical tie in MN was an outlier and not backed up by subsequent polling.
If the election were held tomorrow, we can assume that Obama would win the state comfortably.
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