Polls

So, many people in MN were worried this past week when a new poll showed Obama up by just a couple of points (well within the margin of error). Yet, a poll released the next day showed Obama up by his typical double digits. The composite of the polls (from Pollster.com) has Obama up in double digits and McCain has pulled all advertising dollars from the state. Obama has yet to advertise in local media markets. All of this suggests that the anxiety about that one poll was unjustified.

Polls are snapshots in time. They can also be widely different in methodologies. Basing reactions on one poll is dangerous and often times misleading. Stick to the trends of multiple polls to gauge the actual movement in the race. That one poll showing a statistical tie in MN was an outlier and not backed up by subsequent polling.

If the election were held tomorrow, we can assume that Obama would win the state comfortably.

Obama's overseas trip

Obama's trip to various countries this past week was an unbridled success. Obama looked presidential and the various foreign leaders treated him as the next leader of the free world. Meanwhile, McCain visited a supermarket and talked to 2 people the same day Obama spoke in front of 200,000 in Berlin. Obama simply dominated the news coverage this week and McCain whined about not getting coverage.

Words cannot express how solid the week was for Obama.

White House accidentally broadcasts Maliki story

In one of the funnier moments of the campaign, reporters learned of the Maliki endorsement of Obama's withdrawal plan from the White House. A staffer apparently intended to email the story to an internal distribution of advisers, to get advice on how to deal with the story. Instead this staffer hit the wrong button and sent it to the White House's extensive list of media outlets.

This is just fun.

Iraq PM endorses Obama's plan for withdrawl

This is the biggest development in the presidential race to date. Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki told a German magazine that he supported Barak Obama's plan to withdraw from Iraq in 16 months.

WOW. This is huge. McCain has been attacking Obama for not visiting Iraq and making his policies up based on political expediency instead of the facts on the ground. This argument just died. McCain can hardly accuse Maliki of not being close enough to Iraq. Also, when McCain was asked in 2004: "Should the US withdraw if the Iraqi government asked us to, even if the US wasn't happy about it?" McCain answered yes.

Either McCain has to endorse Maliki and Obama's position, or admit he cares nothing for Iraqi sovereignty.

A prominent Republican strategist who occasionally advises the McCain campaign said simply, "We're fucked." This has the potential to completely refocus how Iraq is perceived. Obama now has the upper hand on this issue without question. Given that McCain is running purely on his foreign policy credentials, this represents a major blow. There are two major foreign policy questions in this election: how to deal with terrorism, and how to deal with Iraq. With Maliki's statement, McCain may have just lost hold on the Iraq question.

Obama is going to come out this week hammering this point.

MN House races

Thanks to recent fundraising numbers, we can now analyze how competitive the Minnesota House races are. There are three competitive house races, MN 3, MN 2, and MN 6. All others are safe seats.

In the MN 3, Congressman Ramstad (MN-R) is retiring. Ramstad is a popular moderate Republican who voted for bills like S-CHIP. This district is about as split as they come, though leaning 1 point more Republican. The candidates to replace Ramstad are Democrat Ashwin Madia, an Iraq War Veteran, and Eric Paulsen, a Republican member of the State House of Representatives. Pauslen is considerably more conservative than Ramstad as he announced that he would have voted against the proposed expansion of S-CHIP.

Recent fundraising numbers for this race are as follows:

Madia
693,000 Raised
738,000 Cash on Hand

Paulsen
621,000 Raised
1,123,000 Cash on Hand

Those are good numbers for Madia this quarter, the first time he's had the field all to himself. This race is one of the top 15 races most likely to switch parties this fall, and the DCCC has reserved ad time here. Money will not be an issue in this race for either candidate, and both candidates are strong recruits. However, Obama is likely to win MN by a solid margin and his coattails make this district lean toward a Democratic pick-up.

In the MN 2, Democrat Steve Sarvi is challenging incumbent Republican John Kline. Their numbers are as follows:

Kline
241,000 Raised
647,000 Cash on Hand

Sarvi
147,000 Raised
98,000 Cash on Hand

Sarvi is not raising enough money to make this a race. He will need national help to beat Kline. This district leans about 3 points Republican. Obama's coattails should help, but Kline is a favorite for reelection at this point.

Finally, the MN 6 features freshman Republican incumbent Michelle Bachmann vs Democrat Elwyn Tinklenberg. Their numbers are:

Bachmann
378,000 Raised
1,297,000 Cash on Hand

Tinklenberg
271,000 Raised
225,000 Cash on Hand

Like Sarvi in the MN 2, Tinklenberg will need national help to make this a race. This district is the most Republican of the three I've looked at, leaning 5 points Republican. Obama should help here, but Bachmann is the safest bet of the three seats to remain in office thus far.

Swing State polls

We have a new round of swing state polls. Obama only trails McCain in South Dakota by 4 points, (47-43). This is on the hells of polls showing a tie in North Dakota and an Obama lead in Montana. If this trend continues, McCain is going to have to defend territory that Bush was able to take for granted.

Now for the more traditional swing states:

Iowa:

Obama- 48
McCain- 38

Michigan:

Obama- 47
McCain- 39

Minnesota:

Obama- 52
McCain- 34

Obama has consistently polled ahead by solid margins in all three states. The last two elections had Minnesota in the Democratic column by small margins. Almost every poll has shown Obama to be leading by wide margins.

Iowa is the state that launched Obama, and a state McCain skipped in 2000 and 2008. This is the state most likely to switch parties in 2008, and it's easy to see why.

Michigan was a state that McCain wanted to put into his column this time. However, Obama seems to have opened up a solid lead here. We'll see if subsequent polling confirms this result.

What is your take on these polls?

MN Senate

Last night it was reported that former Independent Governor Jesse Ventura would NOT run for the senate. This is undoubtable good news for Al Franken as Ventura would have split the independent vote and turned the race into a circus.

There are two new polls in Minnesota that seem to be polling different states entirely. One poll showed the following:

Franken- 44
Coleman- 42

However, another poll showed a much different race:

Coleman- 52
Franken- 39

Why the disparity in polls? This is a pattern in polling for this race. One possible explanation is that the latter poll has consistently showed Obama with a narrow lead in MN, while the first polling company has shown Obama with a wide lead that has been confirmed by other polls. Since the poll uses the same methodology for presidential and senate polls, the latter polling company's methodology is probably more favorable to Republicans.

Who do you think is actually ahead in this race?