MN House races

Thanks to recent fundraising numbers, we can now analyze how competitive the Minnesota House races are. There are three competitive house races, MN 3, MN 2, and MN 6. All others are safe seats.

In the MN 3, Congressman Ramstad (MN-R) is retiring. Ramstad is a popular moderate Republican who voted for bills like S-CHIP. This district is about as split as they come, though leaning 1 point more Republican. The candidates to replace Ramstad are Democrat Ashwin Madia, an Iraq War Veteran, and Eric Paulsen, a Republican member of the State House of Representatives. Pauslen is considerably more conservative than Ramstad as he announced that he would have voted against the proposed expansion of S-CHIP.

Recent fundraising numbers for this race are as follows:

Madia
693,000 Raised
738,000 Cash on Hand

Paulsen
621,000 Raised
1,123,000 Cash on Hand

Those are good numbers for Madia this quarter, the first time he's had the field all to himself. This race is one of the top 15 races most likely to switch parties this fall, and the DCCC has reserved ad time here. Money will not be an issue in this race for either candidate, and both candidates are strong recruits. However, Obama is likely to win MN by a solid margin and his coattails make this district lean toward a Democratic pick-up.

In the MN 2, Democrat Steve Sarvi is challenging incumbent Republican John Kline. Their numbers are as follows:

Kline
241,000 Raised
647,000 Cash on Hand

Sarvi
147,000 Raised
98,000 Cash on Hand

Sarvi is not raising enough money to make this a race. He will need national help to beat Kline. This district leans about 3 points Republican. Obama's coattails should help, but Kline is a favorite for reelection at this point.

Finally, the MN 6 features freshman Republican incumbent Michelle Bachmann vs Democrat Elwyn Tinklenberg. Their numbers are:

Bachmann
378,000 Raised
1,297,000 Cash on Hand

Tinklenberg
271,000 Raised
225,000 Cash on Hand

Like Sarvi in the MN 2, Tinklenberg will need national help to make this a race. This district is the most Republican of the three I've looked at, leaning 5 points Republican. Obama should help here, but Bachmann is the safest bet of the three seats to remain in office thus far.